AFL National Draft · 2001–2019 · 1,365 selections

Draft Pick Ledger

What each pick in the AFL national draft has actually returned, measured with a position-adjusted Player Value Score built from AFL Tables career statistics and DraftGuru honours. Nineteen drafts, every player followed through to the end of the 2026 home-and-away season.

01 · The curve

Average value returned by pick number

Dots are the mean Player Value Score of the 19 players taken at that pick (fewer for picks beyond ~65, which were not used every year). The line is a fitted decay curve a·e−b·pick + c. "Index" rescales the fitted curve so pick 1 = 100 and overlays the AFL's official Draft Value Index (pick 1 = 3000 points, used for academy and father-son bidding) on the same base. Recent cohorts are still accumulating games, so their curve sits lower everywhere.

02 · Hit rates

How often a pick becomes a player

A "star" is a career worth 400+ value points — roughly a 200-game player rated a standard deviation above their positional peers, or a shorter career with major honours. Share retained is the fraction of a player's games played for the club that drafted him.

03 · Positions

Where the value comes from

By pick band and position

Players who never played a game are excluded here (they have no position). Positions are inferred from each player's career statistical profile — see method.

Who gets taken where

Share of players in each pick band by position

04 · Every pick

1,365 selections, one dot each

Hover any dot. The fitted expected-value curve is drawn underneath; the 25 largest positive gaps between a player's value and what his pick usually returns are highlighted, and named from pick 13 onward (the early-pick stars are in the tables below).

05 · Names

Steals, busts and the number ones

06 · Clubs and years

Who drafted well, and which drafts were deep

Club drafting surplus per national pick

Actual value minus the value the pick number usually returns, averaged over every national pick the club made. Gold Coast and GWS are penalised by concentrated early picks in recent, still-maturing cohorts.

Average value per pick by draft year

Later years have had fewer seasons to accumulate value — the bar label shows the best player from each class.

07 · Ledger notes

Things the numbers say

08 · Method

How players and picks are valued

Player Value Score

PVS = games × max(0.2, 1 + 0.5 × impact_z) + honours
impact_z = 0.70·production_z + 0.15·brownlow_votes_per_game_z + 0.15·coaches_votes_per_game_z
(each z computed within the player's position, then shrunk by games ÷ (games + 20))
  • Durability — one point per game after the pick (DraftGuru games; for re-drafted players only games after that selection count).
  • Impact — per-game production compared with peers in the same position. A player a standard deviation above his positional peers earns 1.5 points a game; two above earns 2.0; a fringe player bottoms out at 0.2.
  • Honours — All-Australian 30, AA squad 8, club best-and-fairest 20, Brownlow Medal 50, Norm Smith 20, Rising Star 10, AFLPA MVP / AFLCA champion 30, Coleman 25. Premierships are recorded but not scored: they are a team outcome.
  • Coaches votes exist only from 2005, so that rate uses games from 2005 onward.

Positions and production weights

  • Position is inferred from the statistical shape of a career (volume-neutral ratios): goals, marks inside 50 and goal assists per disposal point forward; rebound 50s and one-percenters per disposal point back; clearances, inside 50s, contested share and disposal volume point to the midfield. 8+ hit-outs a game is a ruck; 1.2+ goals a game is a forward regardless.
  • Midfielders — disposals 20%, contested possessions 20%, clearances 20%, inside 50s 10%, tackles 10%, goals 10%, goal assists 5%, marks 5%.
  • Forwards — goals 35%, marks inside 50 15%, goal assists 10%, contested marks 10%, tackles 10%, disposals 10%, inside 50s 5%, marks 5%.
  • Defenders — rebound 50s 20%, one-percenters 15%, marks 15%, disposals 15%, contested marks 10%, inside 50s 10%, tackles 10%, contested possessions 5%.
  • Rucks — hit-outs 30%, clearances 15%, contested possessions 10%, marks 10%, tackles 10%, goals 10%, disposals 10%, contested marks 5%.
  • Sanity check — DraftGuru's independent player grades line up with the score: D-grade players average 4 points, C 18, C+ 66, B 129, B+ 219, A 369 and A+ 726.
  • Caveats — honours skew toward midfielders (Brownlow, MVP); the impact component is position-fair, the honours component is not. Recent cohorts (2016–19) are still playing. Stat profiles can misfile hybrid players.